Expertise
Sawnwood and paper are sought-after export goods
Holger Weimar | 14.04.2025
The planned US tariffs on imported products will presumably also affect products made from wood that come from the EU or Germany. How intensive is the timber trade between the USA and Germany and how strongly would Germany's wood industry be affected by rising tariffs? An analysis.
Germany is the world export champion, and not just for cars and other industrial goods. The export balance for wood products has also been consistently positive and on an upward trend over the past ten years. This means that in every year more wood products, measured in euros, were exported than Germany imported from other countries. In 2015, this export surplus was just under three billion euros. By 2024, this trade balance will have more than doubled. In 2023 and 2024, the export surplus was 7.3 and 6.1 billion euros respectively.
Around two thirds of German exports in the period 2015 to 2024 were to EU countries. A further 30% were exported to other countries (excluding the USA). Exports to the USA increased from just over three per cent in 2015 to just over five per cent in 2023 and 2024. In the two previous years, the share was even slightly higher at 5.7 per cent (2021) and 6.4 per cent (2022).
The ratio for imports is as follows: In the period from 2015 to 2024, companies in the German wood and paper industry sourced a good three quarters of their products (76 to 79 per cent) from EU countries. This share, and therefore the importance of the EU as a market, is therefore slightly greater than for exports. Imports from other countries excluding the USA accounted for around one fifth (19 to 23 per cent). Over the past ten years, around two per cent of imported wood products for the German market came from the USA, which has remained comparatively constant.
How do imports and exports with the USA relate to each other?
Currently, around three times as many wood products are exported to the USA compared to Germany's companies import from the USA. This can be seen in a direct comparison of imports and exports with the USA.
The trade balance with the USA has been consistently positive over the past ten years. While imports from the USA have remained more or less constant, exports from Germany to the USA have increased, thus increasing the trade balance. The provisional peak was reached in 2022 at 2.2 billion euros. A decline has now become apparent in the past two years.
The trade balance currently stands at 1.2 billion euros. This means that the German trade surplus with the USA accounted for around a fifth of the total trade surplus with wood products last year. By comparison, the trade surplus with EU countries totalled 1.4 billion euros.
Shares of various product groups in exports
There was strong growth in exports of coniferous sawnwood to the USA. While this product group hardly played a role in 2015, it has been the product group with the highest net exports in foreign trade with the USA since 2020. 25 to 30 per cent of all German coniferous sawnwood exports are currently exported to the USA.
Paper and paperboard also account for a high proportion of exports to the USA. Compared to other export markets, however, the USA only plays a subordinate role: around five per cent of all German paper and paperboard exports go overseas.
The situation is similar for finished wood products and paper products: In relation to total German exports of these product groups, the US share accounts for less than five per cent - although the product groups each account for a good ten per cent of exports to the USA. The difference is even greater for non-coniferous sawnwood and fibreboard, which are in high demand in the USA. Almost ten per cent of exports of this product group go to the USA. However, these products are only of minor importance for overall trade.
Pulp is of greater importance when it comes to imports from the USA. They account for around half of all imports from the USA, followed by paper products with around a fifth. Within the product groups, imports from the USA play a particularly important role for non-coniferous sawnwood and currently also for pellets. Both products currently account for around ten per cent of total imports of the respective product group.
Trade with the USA is therefore very important for some product groups. Overall, however, as in the agricultural sector, the EU countries are Germany's most important trading partners for wood products. Overall, more than ten times as many wood products are currently exported to the EU as to the USA.
